Red Waves are more likely when the GOP starting point in the House is low
The party division for the 117th Congress deserves, I think, consideration in analyzing the midterms for the 118th.
Seems to me that talk of a “Red Wave” for this past November 8 harkened back to the House results for Nov. 8, 1994 (when we did not have the bizarre notion of Election Days, but of Election Day).
As the GOP gained 54 seats in 1994, apparently the expectation was that the GOP would make a similar gain in 2022. But this speculation ignores the House divisions of 2021 – 2023 compared to the divisions of 1993 – 1993.
The party breakdown of the 103rd Congress, going into the 1994 midterms was:
It is obvious, therefore, the Republicans had far greater room for improvement on Nov. 8, 1994 compared to Nov. 8, 2022 when the party division in the House was D – 220, R – 213.
There was a gap of 82 seats between the Democrat majority and the GOP going into the 1994 midterm elections; the gap between the parties going into the past midterms was only 7 seats. It should be apparent that the Republicans had far more opportunity to make significant gains in 1994 compared to 2022.
As of November 26, the party division in the House for the 118th Congress stands at R – 220; D – 213. This is the exact reverse of the party split iin the 117th Congress. (This reality, of course, does not to rule out the possibility that the media will refer more often to the narrow margin of 7 seats to be held by the GOP for 2023 to 2025, than when the Democrats held a majority by the same margin for 2021 to 2023.
Stated differently, the House division for the 117th Congress suggests that at this time in our history, the country is far more evenly divided than it was nearly 30 years earlier, when midterm swings resulted in greater gaps in the House.
Here, by the way, is the party division in the House of Representatives for the 104th Congress (elected 11/8/94):
In considering the figures for the 104th Congress, bear in mind that in 1994 there was but one Election Day, not weeks of Election Days; in 1994, the practice of vast numbers of mail-in ballots had not been seized by the radical left as tool to obtain favorable election results.
More likely than not, considering the above election realities, talk of a disappointing midterm for Republicans is intended to keep now-citizen Trump from one presidential term more — as, I believe, the latest absurd suggestion touted in the press that Mr, Trump is close to a Holocaust denier, based on an uninvited guest to his Thanksgiving table. (Why Mr. Trump had a woke celebrity there, Kanye West, who has been making reckless and bad comments about American Jews is certainly another matter.)
One further thought on today’s Republican political situation: There is talk that Ronna McDaniel will not get another term as chair of the Republican National Committee. If the GOP wanted the chair of the RNC to be a dedicated and articulate MAGA conservative who would be a very effective voice against the totalitarian-minded opposition, Republicans should elect American Thinker’s deputy editor Andrea Widburg the next RNC chair.