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In order to really understand and gain control of the present border crisis, one can paraphrase James Carville’s famous dictum during the 1992 presidential election: “It’s the ROI, stupid.”

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The term “ROI” stands for “return on investment.”  If invested capital generates income, then the ROI is positive.  If the capital invested generates a loss, then the ROI is negative.  Rational investors always seek positive ROI.  Whether they receive it or not is a different matter, but they initially expect to get it.  There are winners and losers.

Migrants coming to the USA right now have to make a significant investment.  There is a monetary investment in the form of payment given to the Mexican drug cartels to shepherd them to and across the border.  Many migrants take flights from their home countries to Central or South America and then trek north.  Flights costs money, which increases their investment after payments to the cartels.  Often this also involves future payments earned as the result of working in this country, legally or not.  These payments may be monetary or in the form of indentured labor.

There are other forms of investment as well.  Primary among them is human capital.  Hiking from Central or South America to the U.S. border is not easy.  It involves many weeks of time; many miles of walking; and risk of physical danger from snakes, terrain, and weather along the way.  You have to sleep outside a lot, access to food is uncertain, and one has to negotiate the Rio Grande and the desert.  We know that many are lost in transit.  On top of that, there is the real risk of mistreatment by the cartels.  Many, many adult and adolescent female migrants are sexually abused on their journey here.  Children of both sexes are often abused as well.  Once in the USA, they are often trafficked.  Men and women are forced into indentured servitude by the cartels in different forms, some involving drug-dealing.  The women are placed in brothels, displaying their wares on the streets of American cities.  Think of the psychological and physical scars accrued by these people.  That is a real cost that represents a very significant personal investment.