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I used to listen a lot to Scott Adams’s podcast, stopping only when he bounced to a different forum, which made it too difficult for me. Adams is an out-of-the-box thinker and, often, a prescient one. One of the things he said in 2019 was that the social media companies, having slipped up in 2016, would ensure that Trump could not win a second term. Another thing he said was that, as a general matter, we should never look at events in a vacuum or see them as one-off victories or failures. Instead, we must pay attention to the trajectory we see in multiple events. He was talking about the domino effect of Trump’s Abraham Accords but could just as easily have been talking about Trump’s presidential campaign and political endorsements.
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It’s not just that voters are consistently choosing Trump at rates far greater than the other candidates. I mean, it matters a great deal that, in the latest poll tracking where the Republican primary candidates stand, Trump’s average is 44.5 points ahead of the next nearest candidate. That is an absolutely staggering lead. Yes, there’s still almost a year to go before the election but, with that kind of lead, it’s hard to understand why the other candidates are even in the race.
Sadly, though, we voters have learned that, just because we like a candidate, that doesn’t mean that the establishment…the part of the party with money and power…will back that candidate. The political class needs to embrace the candidate, too, not just for victory but for a successful presidency. Otherwise, when bad things happen in an election, as happened in 2020, the political class will be feckless, useless, and complicit. That group of people needs to have skin in the game, too.
So, polls are great, but what’s interesting now is a different trajectory: Trump is starting to rack up endorsements, with the heftiest endorsement coming in recently.
